Morning Call: Global Stocks Rally As Comments From Chinese President Xi Jinping Ease Trade War Concerns; Jun E-Mini S&Ps Up +1.06%; May WTI Crude Oil Up +1.20% At A 1-Week High.
Barchart.com - Tue Apr 10, 6:40AM CDT
Overnight Markets And News
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM18 +1.08%) this morning are up sharply by +1.06% and European stocks are up +0.69% at a 3-week high as global stock markets rallied after comments from Chinese President Xi Jinping eased fears of a trade war between the U.S. and China. Xi pledged a "new phase of opening up" in his keynote address today to the Boao Forum for Asia and warned against returning to a "Cold War mentality" amid trade disputes. Xi pledged to increase imports, lower foreign-ownership limits on manufacturing and expand protection to intellectual property. Energy stocks are higher with May WTI crude oil (CLK18 +1.99%) up +1.20% to a 1-week high and mining stocks are stronger as well with May COMEX copper (HGK18 +1.41%) up +0.70% at a 3-week high. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.54%, Hong Kong +1.65%, China +1.66%, Taiwan +0.31%, Australia +0.83%, Singapore +0.48%, South Korea +0.16%, India +0.27%. Conciliatory comments from Chinese President Xi Jinping fueled gains in Asian stocks as Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 4-week high.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) is unchanged. EUR/USD (^EURUSD+0.40%) is up +0.06% at a 1-week high on hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Nowotny who said now is the time for a gradual normalization of monetary policy." USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.20%) is up +0.24% as the rally in global stocks curbs the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM18 -0-005) are down -2.5 ticks.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said "the Eurozone economy today clearly is in the middle of a strong and broad-based cyclical upswing" and "now is the time for a gradual normalization of monetary policy."
UK Mar BRC sales like-for-like unexpectedly rose +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.3% y/y and the biggest increase in 6 months.
Japan Mar machine tool orders rose +28.1% y/y, the seventeenth consecutive month orders have gained.
U.S. Stock Preview
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-voter) speaks in Beijing, (2) Mar PPI final demand (expected +0.1% and +2.9% y/y, Feb +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y) and Mar PPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% and +2.6% y/y, Feb +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y), (3) Feb wholesale trade sales (Jan -1.1% m/m) and revised Feb wholesale inventories (expected +0.8%, prelim +1.1% m/m), (4) USDA Apr WASDE crop production, (5) Treasury auctions $30 billion of 3-year T-notes.
Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: MSC Industrial Direct (consensus $1.32).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week: IPAA Oil & Gas Conference on Mon-Tue, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Software Summit on Tue, UBS Chicago Utility Mini Conference on Tue, ACAMS 23RD Annual International AML & Financial Crime Conference on Tue, J.P. Morgan Retail Round-Up Conference on Wed.
Market Comments
June S&P 500 E-minis (ESM18 +1.08%) this morning are up +27.75 points (+1.06%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.33%%, Dow Jones +0.19%, Nasdaq +0.61%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed higher on reduced trade tensions after Larry Kudlow, President Trump's top economic adviser, said the U.S. and China are holding "back-channel discussions" to resolve their differences. There was also carry-over support from a rally in European stocks on upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi who said the ECB "expects the pace of economic expansion in the Eurozone to remain strong in 2018." Energy stocks saw support as crude oil prices rallied +2.19%.
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM18 -0-005) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYM8 -3.5, FVM8 -2.5. Jun 10-year T-notes on Monday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after stocks moved higher and on supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $64 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week.
The dollar this morning is little changed with the dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) unch, EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.40%) up +0.0007 (+0.06%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.20%) up +0.26 (+0.24%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.270 (-0.30%), EUR/USD +0.0040 (+0.33%), USD/JPY -0.16 (-0.15%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on strength in EUR/USD on upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi who said the ECB "expects the pace of economic expansion in the Eurozone to remain strong in 2018." There was also strength in GBP/USD which rallied to a 1-week high after UK Mar Halifax home prices rose a more-than-expected +1.5% m/m, the biggest increase in 7-months, which is hawkish for BOE monetary policy.
Metals prices this morning are mixed with Jun gold (GCM18 +0.04%) -1.1 (-0.08%), May silver (SIK18 -0.15%) -0.054 (-0.33%) and May copper (HGK18 +1.41%) +0.022 (+0.70%) at a 3-week high. Monday's closes: Jun gold +4.00 (+0.30%), May silver +0.151 (+0.89%), May copper +1.60 (+0.51%). Metals on Monday closed higher on a weaker dollar and on continued safe-haven demand for precious metals on the U.S. trade turmoil.
May crude oil prices (CLK18 +1.99%) this morning are up +76 cents (+1.20%) at a 1-week high and May gasoline (RBK18 +1.35%) is +0.0165 (+0.83%) at a 1-week high. Monday's closes: May crude +1.36 (+2.19%), May gasoline +0.0295 (+1.51%). May crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed higher on a weaker dollar and the rally in stocks, which shows confidence in the economic outlook that is positive for energy demand.
Overnight U.S. Stock Movers
Becton Dickinson (BDX +0.88%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup with a price target of $251.
NVIDIA (NVDA +0.54%) gained nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it was raised to 'Overweight' from 'Equal-Weight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $238.
Goldman Sachs (GS +0.89%) may open higher this morning after it was recommended with an 'Outperform' rating at Bernstein with a price target of $300.
CME Group (CME +0.58%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Bernstein with a price target of $190.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE +0.38%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Bernstein with a price target of $85.
Live Nation (LYV -1.14%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Etsy (ETSY -0.11%) may open higher this morning after it was rated a new 'Buy' at Loop Capital Markets with a price target of $32.
Seagate Technology (STX -0.58%) may open higher this morning after it was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal-Weight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $72.
United Airlines (UAL -0.16%) reported March consolidated traffic rose +6.5% and said it sees Q1 capacity increasing +3.6% and prasm rising +2.7%
Tupperware Brands (TUP -0.38%) fell almost 5% in after-hours trading after it said it sees preliminary Q1 adjusted EPS of 87 cents to 92 cents, weaker than a prior estimate of $1.01 to $1.06.
Energous (WATT +5.25%) surged almost 20% in after-hours trading after it said it received FCC certification for its 900 MHz WattUp Near Field transmitter.
EMCORE Corp (EMKR unch) tumbled more than 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 preliminary revenue of $18 million to $19 million, lower than previous guidance of $21 million to $23 million, citing significant demand shortfall from one major customer.
Pingtan Marine Enterprises Ltd (PME +9.61%) rallied over 16% in after-hours trading after it increased its current production capacity as it said 27 fishing vessels are now approved to operate in international waters of the Indian Ocean.