Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH18-0.74%) this morning are down sharply by -0.95% and European stocks are down -0.33% as global stocks slide on concern over U.S. trade policies. The resignation late yesterday of President Trump's economic adviser, Gary Cohn, a free-trade proponent, has bolstered concern President Trump will go ahead with his planned tariffs on aluminum and steel imports. Also, people with knowledge of the matter said the Trump administration is considering restrictions on Chinese investments in the U.S. along with tariffs on a broad range of Chinese imports to punish China for its alleged theft of intellectual property. Weakness in energy stocks is another negative for the overall market with Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ18-0.51%) down -0.89% after API data late Tuesday showed U.S. crude inventories rose +5.66 million bbl last week. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -0.77%, Hong Kong -1.03%, China -0.55%, Taiwan -0.36%, Australia -1.01%, Singapore -1.18%, South Korea +0.22%, India -0.85%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is down -0.02% at a 2-week low on concern President Trump will ramp up his protectionist trade policies. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.02% at a 2-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.36%.
Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM18 +0.21%) are up +8 ticks.
Fed Governor Brainard said stronger global growth and "very substantial" U.S. fiscal stimulus "do give me greater confidence in the outlook for inflation." She added, "a couple of years ago, strong headwinds sapped the momentum of the recovery and weighed down the path of policy. Today, with headwinds shifting to tailwinds, the reverse could hold true."
Eurozone Q4 GDP was left unrevised at +0.6% q/q and +2.7% y/y.
The Japan Jan leading index CI fell -1.8 to an 8-month low of 104.8, weaker than expectations of -0.9 to 106.5. The Jan coincident index fell -5.7 to a 1-year low of 114.0, weaker than expectations of -4.9 to 115.3.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +2.7% with purchase sub-index +6.2% and refi sub-index -1.2%), (2) NY Fed President Dudley (voter) speaks in Puerto Rico, (3) Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (voter) speaks on the economic outlook in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, (4) Feb ADP employment (expected +200,000, Jan +234,000), (5) revised Q4 non-farm productivity (expected unrevised at -0.1%) and revised Q4 unit labor costs (previous +2.0%), (6) Jan trade balance (expected -$55.1 billion, Dec -$53.1 billion), (7) EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report, (8) Fed Beige Book, (9) Jan consumer credit (expected +$18.0 billion, Dec +$18.447 billion).
Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include:
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week: Citi Global Property CEO Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, Deutsche Bank Media, Telecom and Business Services Conference on Mon-Wed, AIFA Conference on Tue, Royal Bank of Canada Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Consumer and Retail Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Refining Conference on Thu, Boenning & Scattergood Water Summit on Thu, Evercore ISI Payments and FinTech Innovators Forum on Thu, J.P. Morgan Gaming Lodging Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum on Thu-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Ross Stores (ROST +3.24%) slid 3% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year EPS of $3.86 to $4.02, weaker than consensus of $4.18.
Armstrong World (AWI +0.91%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Autodesk (ADSK +0.84%) jumped 10% in after-hours trading after it projected 2019 AAR growth of 28%-30% under the new revenue accounting standard ASC 606, higher than consensus of 24%-26%.
Medifast (MED +0.54%) rallied nearly 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 60 cents, better than consensus of 48 cents, and said it sees full-year EPS of $3.15-$3.25, well above consensus of $2.73.
Aerovironment (AVAV +0.78%) dropped 7% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year revenue of $280 million to $300 million, the midpoint below consensus of $298.2 million.
Korn/Ferry International (KFY +2.07%) rose 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 70 cents, better than consensus of 58 cents, and said it sees Q4 adjusted EPS of 69 cents to 73 cents, higher than consensus of 67 cents.
Mondelez International (MDLZ +1.13%) slid nearly 3% in after-hours trading after unknown sellers sold 19.5 million shares between $43.90 and $44.50 a share, below Tuesday's closing price of $45.57.
Editas Medicine (EDIT-0.10%) dropped almost 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 collaboration revenue of $3.67 million, below consensus of $4.20 million.
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI-0.57%) fell 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $28.6 million, below consensus of $32.9 million, and said it sees 2018 revenue of $90 million to $110 million, well below consensus of $126.5 million.
Casa Systems (CASA +3.53%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $118 million, better than consensus of $101.2 million.
H&R Block (HRB-0.12%) gained nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $488 million, better than consensus of $458.8 million.
Carvana (CVNA +0.27%) tumbled 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $265.1 million, weaker than consensus of $269.5 million, and said it sees Q1 revenue of $325 million to $355 million, well below consensus of $413.4 million.
Bojangles (BOJA-6.40%) climbed over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $148.1 million, above consensus of $146.8 million, and said it sees full-year revenue of $550 million to $560 million, better than consensus of $546.3 million.
Sunrun (RUN +3.19%) lost 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 25 cents, below consensus of 37 cents.
Mar S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESH18-0.74%) this morning are down -26.00 points (-0.95%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.26%, Dow Jones +0.04%, Nasdaq +0.46%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher on reduced U.S. trade tensions after Senator Perdue said President Trump is open to changes on his positions for tariffs on U.S. metal imports. Stocks were also boosted by reduced geopolitical concerns after North Korea told South Korea that it's willing to give up its nuclear weapons if the safety of the North Korean regime was guaranteed. Stocks were undercut by the U.S. Jan factory orders report of -1.4%, the biggest decline in 6 months. There was also weakness in retailers and consumer-staple stocks, led by a -4% decline in Target, after the retailer reported weaker-than-expected Q4 quarterly earnings. E-minis dropped -1% after the market closed when White House Gary Cohn quit the White House over President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs.
Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM18 +0.21%) this morning are up +8 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYM8 unch, FVM8 -0.75. Jun 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed little changed. T-notes were suport by the as-expected -1.4% decline in U.S. Jan factory orders, the biggest decline in 6 months, and by some hedge-lifting in Treasuries after CVS sold a $40 billion bond to finance its acquisition of Aetna. T-note prices were undercut by reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied mildly.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is down -0.018 (-0.02%) at a 2-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0002 (+0.02%) at a 2-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.38 (-0.36%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.462 (-0.51%), EUR/USD +0.0068 (+0.55%), USD/JPY -0.07 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Tuesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower on strength in EUR/USD which climbed to a 2-week high after the 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1-week high, which boosted the euro's interest rate differentials. The dollar was also undercut by concern that President Trump's trade policies may undercut U.S. economic growth.
Apr crude oil (CLJ18-0.51%) this morning is down -56 cents (-0.89%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ18 +0.25%) is -0.0049 (-0.25%). Tuesday's closes: Apr WTI crude +0.03 (+0.05%), Apr gasoline -0.0018 (-0.19%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed. April crude oil prices were undercut by comments from OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo who said it's too early for OPEC to discuss extending production cuts into 2019, and by expectations for Wednesday's weekly EIA crude oil inventories to climb +2.5 million bbl. Crude oil found support on the slide in the dollar index to a 2-week low.
Metals prices this morning are weaker with Apr gold (GCJ18-0.27%) -3.1 (-0.23%), May silver (SIK18-0.65%) -0.094(-0.56%), and May copper (HGK18-1.00%) -0.034 (-1.06%). Tuesday's closes: Apr gold +15.3 (+1.16%), May silver +0.372 (+2.27%), May copper +0.0310 (+0.99%). Metals on Tuesday closed higher with Apr gold at a 1-week high and May silver at a 2-week high. Metals prices were supported by the fall in the dollar index to a 2-week low, and by signs of tighter supplies after LME copper inventories fell -2,525 MT to a 3-week low of 319,650 MT.