Barchart Morning Call - 

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH18 unch) this morning are down -0.05% and European stocks are down -0.57% after European manufacturing activity slowed more than expected this month. Losses were contained as the 10-year T-note yield held below 2.90%. The weaker European economic data also knocked the German 10-year bund yield down to a 2-week low of 0.696%. The markets will turn their attention towards today's minutes of the last FOMC meeting on Jan 30-31. The market is still discounting the odds at 100% for a 25 bp rate hike at next month's Mar 20-21 FOMC meeting. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.21%, Hong Kong +1.81%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan +2.81%, Australia +0.05%, Singapore +1.14%, South Korea +0.52%, India +0.42%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index closed higher due to strength in exporters as USD/JPY climbed +0.11% to a 1-week high and improved the earnings prospects for exporters. Chinese markets remained closed for the last day of the Lunar New Year holiday and will reopen tomorrow.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) is up +0.19%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.15%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11% at a 1-week high.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.01%) are up +0.5 of a tick.

The German Feb Markit/BME manufacturing PMI fell -0.8 to 60.3, weaker than expectations of -0.6 to 60.5. The Feb Markit services PMI fell -2.0 to 55.3, weaker than expectations of -0.3 to 57.0.

The Eurozone Feb Markit manufacturing PMI fell -1.1 to 58.5, weaker than expectations of -0.4 to 59.2. The Feb Markit composite PMI fell -1.3 to 57.5, weaker than expectations of -0.4 to 58.4.


Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -4.1% with purchase sub-index -5.9% and refi sub-index -1.9%), (2) Feb Markit manufacturing PMI (expected unch at 55.5, Jan +0.4 to 55.5) and Feb Markit services PMI (expected +0.4 to 53.7, Jan -0.4 to 53.3), (3) Jan existing home sales (expected +0.5% to 5.60 million, Dec -3.6% to 5.57 million), (4) Treasury auctions $15 billion 2-year floating-rate notes and $35 billion 5-year T-notes, and (5) minutes of the Jan 30-31 FOMC meeting.

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Garmin (consensus $0.76), Advanced Auto (0.63), DISH Network (0.57), Southern (0.46), Stericycle (1.14), Host Hotels (0.39).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: CAGNY Investor Conference on Tue-Fri, BMO Capital Markets Seattle Tech Bus Tour Field Trip on Wed, Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference on Wed, Barclays Industrial Select Conference on Wed-Thu, Citi Global Industrials Conference on Wed-Thu, Royal Bank of Canada Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, Gabelli & Company Valve & Water Systems Symposium on Thu.


Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN -2.74%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Canaccord Genuity.

Mosaic (MOS +5.23%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.

Verisk Analytics (VRSK -1.77%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted Ebitda from continuing operations of $275.7 million, above consensus of $272.0 million.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH -1.85%) slid almost 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $545.1 million, right on consensus.

Fluor (FLR +0.71%) may move higher this morning when it reported after the close Tuesday that it sees full-year EPS of $3.10 to $3.50, well above consensus of $2.76.

Boyd Gaming (BYD +0.70%) dropped almost 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 22 cents, weaker than consensus of 27 cents.

Aimmune Therapeutics (AIMT -6.02%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced that it had commenced an underwritten public offering of up to $150 million of shares of its common stock.

La-Z-Boy (LZB -0.69%) may move higher this morning when it reported after the close Tuesday that its Q3 sales were $413.6 million, better than consensus of $401.3 million.

Cardtronics PLC (CATM -2.33%) tumbled 10% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2018 adjusted EPS between $1.35 to $1.55, well below consensus of $2.07.

Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO -0.32%) gained nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 85 cents, better than consensus of 75 cents.

LivePerson (LPSN +5.22%) rallied over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $57.4 million, better than consensus of $56.5 million, and said it sees Q1 revenue of $56.8 million to $57.8 million, above consensus of $55.5 million.

Cyberoptics (CYBE +5.61%) climbed 5% in after-hours trading after it reported an unexpected Q4 EPS profit of 7 cents, higher than consensus of a -4 cent loss.

LendingClub (LC +4.56%) dropped nearly 9% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 net revenue of $145 million to $155 million, weaker than consensus of $161 million.


Mar S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESH18 unch) this morning are down -1.25 points (-0.05%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.58%, Dow Jones -1.01%, Nasdaq +0.13%. Stocks on Tuesday closed lower on weakness in retailer stocks, led by a -10%drop in Walmart, after it reported weaker-than-expected Q4 EPS and lowered guidance on 2019 EPS. There were also interest rate concerns after the 10-year T-note yield moved back above 2.90%. Stocks found support on strength in technology stocks and a rally in energy stocks after crude oil prices rose +0.39% to a 1-1/2 week high.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.01%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Tuesday's closes: TYH8 -3.00, FVH8 -3.00.Mar 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed lower on supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $107 billion of T-notes this week and on the rally in crude oil prices to a 1-1/2 week high, which boosted inflation expectations.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) this morning is up +0.17 (+0.19%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0018 (-0.15%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12 (+0.11%) at a 1-week high. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.616 (+0.69%), EUR/USD -0.0070 (-0.56%), USD/JPY +0.74 (+0.69%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on the increase in the 10-year T-note yield, which improves the dollar's interest rate differentials, and on weakness in EUR/USD after Eurozone Feb consumer confidence fell more than expected.

Apr crude oil (CLJ18 -0.53%) this morning is down -39 cents (-0.63%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ18 -0.01%) is -0.0033 (-0.17%). Tuesday's closes: Apr WTI crude +0.24 (+0.39%), Apr gasoline +0.0026 (+0.13%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday rallied to 1-1/2 week highs and closed higher on increased compliance with crude production cuts after OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers reported compliance with their crude production cuts rose to 133% in Jan. Crude oil also received support from the increase in the crack spread to a 1-week high, which gives incentive for refiners to boost their crude purchases to refine the crude into gasoline. Crude oil prices were undercut by a stronger dollar and by comments U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary Brouillete who said the outlook for U.S. oil production in 2018 and 2019 is "phenomenal" due to the shale oil revolution.

Metals prices this morning are weaker with Apr gold (GCJ18 -0.05%-0.3 (-0.02%), Mar silver (SIH18 -0.29%-0.038(-0.23%), and Mar copper (HGH18 -0.47%-0.015 (-0.45%). Tuesday's closes: Apr gold -25.0 (-1.84%), Mar silver -0.274(-1.64%), Mar copper -0.058 (-1.79%). Metals on Tuesday closed lower on a stronger dollar and on the Indonesia Trade Ministry's grant to Freeport McMoRan Indonesia of a permit to export 1.25 MMT of copper concentrate over the next year, which will boost copper supplies.