Barchart Morning Call

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.19%) this morning are up +0.16% and European stocks are up +0.04% at a 4-1/2 month high on signs the global economic recovery can continue. German Aug industrial production jumped +2.6% m/m, the biggest increase in 6-years, and Eurozone Oct Sentix investor confidence rose +1.5 to 29.7, a 10-1/4 year high. Also, the crisis in Spain eased as Spain's IBEX Stock Index is up +0.67% after a senior member of the Catalan administration called for dialogue with Spain. Turkey's ISE Stock Index slumped -3.05% and the Turkish lira fell to an 8-1/2 month low against the dollar as a diplomatic spat between the two countries escalated after both the U.S. and Turkey suspended visa services for citizens looking to visit the other country. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan, Taiwan and South Korea closed for holiday. Hong Kong -0.46%, China +0.76%, Australia +0.50%, Singapore +0.01%, India +0.10%. China's Shanghai Composite rallied to a 1-3/4 year high as it reopened following a week long holiday, although prices fell back from their best levels as real estate companies retreated after the Economic Information Daily said that new home sales declined in Beijing and Shanghai during the week-long National Day holiday.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) is down -0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.14%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 +0.02%) are up +2.5 ticks.

The Eurozone Oct Sentix investor confidence rose +1.5 to 29.7, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 28.5 and the highest in 10-1/4 years.

German Aug industrial production rose +2.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.9% m/m and the biggest increase in 6-years.

Boston Fed President Rosengren said, "Low inflation readings have provided monetary policy makers the opportunity to take a more patient approach to removing accommodation than in recent recoveries, however, failing to respond to very tight labor markets with rates remaining negative in real terms could potentially risk unnecessarily shortening the economic recovery."

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) U.S. government offices and cash Treasury trading closed for Columbus Day but exchanges are open.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: none.

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Cerner Health Conference on Mon-Wed, HR Technology Conference on Tue-Fri, National HUBZone Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

E*TRADE Financial (ETFC -2.36%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch with a price target of $49.

Yelp (YELP +0.73%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Morgan Stanley (MS +0.26%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $54.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI +0.25%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Cowen.

Humana (HUM +0.63%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JP Morgan Chase.

Goldman Sachs (GS -0.02%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.

Express Scripts Holdings (ESRX -2.58%) may open lower this morning after it was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James.

Viacom (VIA -0.98%) slid over 3% in pre-market trading after it was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup who said that Viacom faces the "acute" risk that Charter Communications will stop carrying its content.

Tesla (TSLA +0.44%) fell -0.5% in after-hours trading after CEO Musk tweeted that that the unveiling of its semi-truck would be pushed back to Nov 16 from Oct 26 as the company diverts resources to fix Model 3 bottlenecks and increase battery production for Puerto Rico.

Medtronic Plc (MDT +0.38%) fell 2% in after-hours trading when it said that its Q2 quarterly revenue and earnings would be hurt by $250 million from the impact of Hurricane Maria.

Pershing Square said it cut its stake in Mondelez (MDLZ +0.07%) to 4.97% from a 5.60% stake reported on Sep 27.

Morgan Stanley cut its passive stake in Blue Apron (APRN -1.32%) to 1.4% from a 5.31% stake reported in Aug 2.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 +0.19%) this morning are up +4.00 points (+0.16%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.11%, Dow Jones -0.01%, Nasdaq +0.12%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed lower on the unexpected decline in U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls by -33,000, which was weaker than expectations of +80,000 and the biggest decline in 7 years. Stocks were also undercut by ramped up expectations for a Fed rate hike in December after U.S. Sep average hourly earnings rose +2.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.6% y/y and the largest year-on-year increase in 8-1/4 years. There were also increased geopolitical tensions that fueled long liquidation in stocks after Russia's news agency reported that North Korea might test a long-range ballistic missile over the weekend.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 +0.02%) this morning are up +2.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYZ7 -4.00, FVZ7 -3.25. Dec 10-year T-notes on Friday tumbled to a 5-3/4 month nearest futures low and closed lower on the stronger-than-expected +2.9% y/y increase in U.S. Sep average hours earnings, the most in 8-1/4 years, which bolsters the case for a Fed rate hike in December. There was also an increase in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-week high. T-notes recovered most of their losses on increased safe-haven demand after the Russian news agency reported that North Korea plans to test a long-range ballistic missile this weekend.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) this morning is down -0.11 (-0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0017 (+0.14%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02 (-0.02%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.161 (-0.17%), EUR/USD +0.0019 (+0.16%), USD/JPY -0.17 (-0.15%). The dollar index on Friday fell back from a 2-1/4 month high and closed lower on increased safe-haven demand for the yen after Russia's news agency reported that North Korea would test a long-range missile over the weekend. The dollar was also undercut by dovish comments from Dallas Fed President Kaplan who said, "he's not there yet" on a Fed rate hike in Dec. The dollar rallied to a 2-1/4 month high early after U.S. Sep average hourly earnings rose +2.9% y/y, the largest year-on-year increase in 8-1/4 years, which was hawkish for Fed policy.

Nov crude oil (CLX17 +0.18%) this morning is down -1 cents (-0.02%) and Nov gasoline (RBX17 -0.91%) is -0.0179 (-1.15%). Friday's closes: Nov WTI crude -1.50 (-2.95%), Nov gasoline -0.0526 (-3.26%). Nov crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed lower with Nov crude at a 3-week low. Crude oil prices were undercut by updated weather forecasts that call for Tropical Storm Nate to move away from the bulk of the U.S. oil production rigs in the Gulf of Mexico before it makes landfall on the Gulf Coast Sunday. Crude oil prices were also undercut by the sharp decline in the crack spread, which reduces the incentive for refineries to purchase crude oil to refine into gasoline.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ17 +0.75%) +10.4 (+0.82%) at a 1-week high, Dec silver (SIZ17+0.83%) +0.16 (+0.95%) at a 1-1/2 week high and Dec copper (HGZ17 -0.12%-0.005 (-0.17%). Friday's closes: Dec gold +1.7 (+0.13%), Dec silver +0.152 (+0.91%), Dec copper -0.0175 (-0.57%). Metals on Friday settled mixed. Precious metals prices were boosted by increased safe-haven demand after Russia's news agency reported that North Korea would test a ballistic missile over the weekend. Copper was boosted by the -2,675 MT decline in LME copper inventories to a 3-week low. Metals prices were undercut by the stronger-than-expected U.S. Sep hourly earnings report of +2.9% y/y that bolstered the case for a Fed interest rate increase at the Dec FOMC meeting.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/09/2017
Monday, Oct 9
USn/aU.S. government offices and cash Treasury trading closed for Columbus Day. Exchanges open.
Tuesday, Oct 10
US1000 ETMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voter) speaks at a regional economic conference hosted by his bank.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1600 ETUSDA crop conditions and progress report.
2000 ETDallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) speaks in a moderated Q&A at a Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Associates Meeting.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/09/2017
NameTickerTimeDescriptionPeriodEstimate
Wal-Mart Stores IncWMT USInvestment Community Meeting Day - 1