OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 unch) are little changed, up +0.03%, and European stocks are down -0.85% on increased chances of a Fed rate hike this year after hawkish Fed comments last Friday at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. The outlook for a near-term Fed rate hike has boosted the dollar and undercut commodity prices. Crude oil (CLV16 -1.34%) is down -1.34%, which has drug down energy producing stocks, while gold prices (GCZ16-0.21%) are down -0.37% at a 2-month low, which has pushed mining stocks lower. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +2.30%, Hong Kong -0.38%, China-0.01%, Taiwan -0.24%, Australia -0.84%, Singapore -0.99%, South Korea +0.10%, India +0.43%. Japanese stocks rose as the Nikkei stock index climbed to a 1-1/2 week high after USD/JPY jumped to a 2-1/2 week high when BOJ Governor Kuroda said the BOJ "will act decisively as we move on." The rally in USD/JPY boosted the outlook for exporters, with Toyota Motor and Mazda Motor up over 4%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.17%) is up +0.08% at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.15% at a 2-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.33% at a 2-1/2 week high.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.11%) are up +3.5 ticks as they recover from a 2-month low posted in overnight trade.

ECB Executive Board member Coeure said "we may see short-term rates being pushed to the effective lower bound more frequently in the event of macroeconomic shocks" if governments don't act to boost the growth potential of Eurozone economies.

BOJ Governor Kuroda said "the BOJ will act decisively as we move on" and the "zero bound is no longer insurmountable" as a policy constraint "in practice." He said the current rate is "still far from such a lower bound" and that will carefully consider how to make the best use of the policy scheme in order to achieve the price stability target.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jul personal spending (expected +0.3%, Jun +0.4%) and Jul personal income (expected +0.4%, Jun +0.2%), (2) Jul PCE deflator (expected unch m/m and +0.8% y/y, Jun +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y) and Jul core PCE deflator (expected +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Jun +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y), (3) Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing index (expected -1.7 to -3.0, Jul -1.3), (4) USDA weekly grain export inspections, and (5) USDA Weekly Crop Progress.

Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: none.

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences today: European Society of Cardiolog Meeting on Mon-Tue, 2016 Farm Progress Show on Mon-Wed, Longbow Industrial Manufacturing & Technology Conference on Tue, Simmons European Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Jefferies LLC Semiconductor, Hardware and Communications Infrastructure Summit on Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT -0.28%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Mizuho Securities USA with a 12-month target price of $176.

At Home Group (HOME unch) was rated a new 'Buy' at Jeffries with a 12-month target price of $20.

T-Mobile (TMUS -0.69%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo Securities.

KeyCorp (KEY +0.49%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray.

Harley-Davidson (HOG -1.26%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at Longbow Research with a 12-month target price of $40.

Post Properties (PPS -0.72%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James with a 12-month price target of $72.50.

Netflix (NFLX +0.27%) was rated a new 'Sell' at Axiom Capital with a target price of $80.

Herbalife (HLF -2.31%) climbed over 3% in pre-market trading after Carl Icahn said he bought 2.3 million shares of Herbalife on Friday and now holds 19.3 million shares of the stock.

Caesers Entertainment Corp. (CZR -0.40%) tumbled 10% in after-hours trading after U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Goldgar ruled that Caesers must face bondholder lawsuits demanding that Caesers honors $11 billion in guarantees.

Tidewater (TDW +0.97%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after Robert Robotti increased his stake in the company from 2.2% to 6%.

Adamis Pharmaceuticals (ADMP +25.27%) jumped over 6% in after-hours trading after the company said it is targeting a year-end submission to the FDA for its prefilled syringe that would be a "low-cost" alternative to Mylan's EpiPen.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 unch) this morning are up +0.75 of a point (+0.03%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.16%, Dow Jones -0.29%, Nasdaq +0.17%. The S&P 500 on Friday fell to a 3-week low and closed lower on Fed Vice Chair Fischer's statement that Fed Chair Yellen's upbeat comments on the U.S. economy leave open the possibility of a Fed rate hike at next month's FOMC meeting. Stocks were also undercut by the unexpected -0.6 point decline in the U.S. Aug University of Michigan consumer sentiment to a 4-month low of 89.8, weaker than expectations of +0.4 to 90.8.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU16 +0.11%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYU6 -22.00, FVU6 -14.25. Sep T-notes on Friday retreated from a 1-week high and closed lower on Fed Vice Chair Fischer's statement that Fed Chair Yellen's upbeat comments on the U.S. economy leave open the possibility of a Fed rate hike next month. T-notes were also undercut by the rise in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a 2-week high. T-notes found a little support after Fed Chair Yellen reassured market participants that policy makers "anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate over time." 

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.17%) this morning is up +0.074 (+0.08%) at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0017 (-0.15%) at a 2-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.34 (+0.33%) at a 2-1/2 week high. Friday's closes: Dollar index +0.794 (+0.84%), EUR/USD -0.0087 (-0.77%), USD/JPY +1.31 (+1.30%). The dollar index on Friday rallied to a 1-week high and closed higher on Fed Chair Yellen's comment that the case for a U.S rate hike has "strengthened in recent months." In addition, Fed Vice Chair Fischer said that Fed Chair Yellen's comments on the economy are consistent with a possible Fed rate hike next month.

Oct crude oil (CLV16 -1.34%) this morning is down -64 cents (-1.34%) and Oct gasoline (RBV16 -1.37%) is down -0.0193 (-1.35%). Friday's closes: CLV6 +0.31 (+0.65%), RBV6 +0.0047 (+0.33%). Oct crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed higher with Oct gasoline at a 1-3/4 month high. Crude oil prices were boosted by upbeat comments by Fed Chair Yellen on the U.S. economy and by a report from Iran's Press TV that Yemen fired missiles at Saudi Aramco oil facilities in the Jizan region of Saudi Arabia. Crude oil prices were undercut by rise in the dollar index to a 1-week high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/29/2016
Monday, Aug 29
US0830 ETJul personal spending expected +0.3%, Jun +0.4%. Jul personal income expected +0.4%, Jun +0.2%.
0830 ETJul PCE deflator expected unch m/m and +0.8% y/y, Jun +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Jul core PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Jun +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
1030 ETAug Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook level of general business activity expected -1.7 to -3.0, Jul -1.3.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1600 ETUSDA Weekly Crop Progress.
Tuesday, Aug 30
US0900 ETJun S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index expected -0.10% m/m and +5.1% y/y, May -0.5% m/m and +5.24% y/y.
1000 ETAug consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -0.3 to 97.0, Jul -0.1 to 97.3.
UK0430 ETUK Jul net consumer credit expected +1.7 billion pounds, Jun +1.8 billion pounds.
0430 ETUK Jul mortgage approvals expected 62,000, Jun 64,800.
0430 ETUK Jul M4 money supply, Jun +1.1% m/m and +3.5% y/y.
1901 ETUK Aug Lloyds business barometer, Jul +23 to 29.
1905 ETUK Aug GfK consumer confidence expected +4 to -8, Jul -11 to -12.
GER0200 ETGerman Jul import price index expected -0.1% m/m and -4.0% y/y, Jun +0.5% m/m and -4.6% y/y.
0800 ETGerman Aug CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y, Jul +0.4% m/m and +0.4% y/y.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Aug economic confidence expected -0.5 to 104.1, Jul +0.2 to 104.6. Aug business climate indicator expected -0.03to 0.36, Jul +0.17 to 0.39.
0500 ETRevised Eurozone Aug consumer confidence, prelim-Aug -0.6 to -8.5.
JPN1950 ETJapan Jul industrial production expected +0.7% m/m and -3.0% y/y, Jun +2.3% m/m and -1.5% y/y.
CHI2145 ETChina Aug Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment, Jul -1.9 to 114.0.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/29/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
ScanSource IncSCSC US16:00Q4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20160.71
Phibro Animal Health CorpPAHC USAft-mktQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20160.38
Exa CorpEXA USAft-mktQ2 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2017-0.055
Catalent IncCTLT USAft-mktQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20160.53
Park City Group IncPCYG USQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2016
Advanced Drainage Systems IncWMS USQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20170.248
First NBC Bank Holding CoFNBC USQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.784