Value investing message boards image Log on |  Join ($$) Stock market forums image VF "How To" Guide        Welcome, guest! Learn about guest access                       
ValueForum.com Home

Another Week of Record Crude Production


 << previous next >>
 Post
 > New post - to everyone
 > New post - to private group
 Search
View 3/24 Daily Digest
Launch Message Ticker
View Private Post Inbox
Review Tracked Comments

Tip: use ALLCAPS for symbol search
 Keywords:  
 Period:  
-- Advanced Search Page --
-- Comment Search Page --
 Settings
 > Log on
 > What Is ValueForum?
 > Try ValueForum Today

symbol lookup » my portfolios »
Topic: Energy — Oil
Jun. 10 2015, 1:51 PM ET - by VF member bz1516 (2361 gold star (click for information on feedback))

Another week of record crude production, up 26,000 bbls to 9.61mm bbls. Thatís up about 1.2mm bbls from last year, when we were running a $1mm bbl/d surplus of supply over demand.

Storage was down ~7mm bbls this week. Over the last 6 weeks it has been down 20mm bbls to the current 470mm bbls. While this sounds bullish, put in context with last yearís 13mm bbl decline during the same period, it is only down slightly, within the normal fluctuation range. The point here is last year the decline preceded a precipitous drop in oil prices. So decline is not an indication of anything by itself. As a matter of fact last year oil dropped from over $100 to $45 while storage was decreasing. Storage only plays a critical role when it exceeds capacity. Otherwise it is not a good predictor of price movement.

The production numbers are much more reliable than the storage numbers. Before anyone brings up production being a model, that is only partially correct. The actual numbers are known two months later and the model is constantly updated to reflect unanticipated changes. It works the same way for employment data and other economic series.

Here is how I look at it. We know that if the US was oversupplied by ~1mm bbls last year and we have added 1.2mm bbls this year we are still probably running an oversupply of over 1mm bbls now. That is why I and many others expect another price drop in oil. The GS price outlook looks as good as any.

One reason output may be more buoyant than anticipated a few months ago is the price of oi has been hanging near $60 vs an under $50 price when a lot of forecasts were made. There is just a lot more drilling and completion that is profitable at $60 than below $50 with a negative outlook.

At $60 my preferred oil play, sand companies look attractive. At $45 they donít. Thatís why Iím keeping my powder dry. Waiting to see what will happen in July with production and ultimately crude pricing.

Click To Add Your POPositive RecommendationITIVE Recommendation!   |  Currently: 
 87 positive

 << previous next >>

Looking for insight and analysis shared by fellow self directed investors? You've come to the right place! ValueForum is the web's best community forum for unvarnished, trusted, up-to-the-minute thinking on investments. What you just read is a "public post" but most posts including comments and replies, are available only to members.

Imagine walking into a secluded room where some of the smartest, most successful investors in America are gathered — self-directed investors and hedge fund managers alike — to share investing ideas.

In this private setting, members of this exclusive group are able to share honest opinions and unfiltered insights on stocks, bonds, ETFs, options, Forex and more. There's also a healthy amount of respectful debate as they bandy ideas about. And in the end, everyone is the richer for it.

That kind of exchange is exactly what happens every day here on ValueForum.com, the Internet's premier investing community.

Membership in this private online community is strictly limited — just 1500 investors will be admitted — but today you are in line to be one of them.

Before I tell you about all the member benefits waiting for you, I want to make one thing clear: ValueForum.com is nothing like the big free public investment boards out there.

We started ValueForum.com so that serious investors could get away from the noise, the shills and the shouting that plague public stock message boards.

That's why our community is founded on a few simple rules that keep the quality of our content and our members very high...

  • Privacy is paramount and confidentiality strictly enforced. Members are forbidden from sharing or reposting any members-only ValueForum.com content; violators forfeit membership.

  • Multiple aliases are not permitted (behind every screen name is a member profile so you can get to know your fellow members — and many have become lifelong friends).

  • No unsolicited or unauthorized advertising or product selling is allowed.

  • Robust debates are encouraged, but respect and common courtesy are expected with fighting and name-calling disallowed.

  • Violators forfeit membership.

And it works. As one of our long-time members explains:

"ValueForum gives you the chance to learn from people who aren't trying to sell you anything, just willing to give away their sincere thoughts. I have made a lot of money from information on VF."

So whether you are looking for new stock ideas or new ways to boost your investment income with REITs, BDCs, high-yield bonds, closed-end funds, you'll be thrilled at the constant flow of reliable ideas and analysis.

As another of our members going by the handle of oldart will tell you...

"No friend, no book, no broker, no advisor, no expert has ever provided a tenth what I am able to find here. The best money I have EVER spent is for membership."

WHAT YOU GET

Your ValueForum.com membership gives you unlimited access to:

  • A steady stream of top-notch investment ideas.

  • Invaluable insights and analysis on stocks, bonds, REITs, BDCs, and more.

  • Over 100 message board topics to help you focus on the areas that interest you most.

  • The chance to share your investment ideas and have them thoroughly vetted by your ValueForum peers before you make a move.

  • The ValueForum.com stock rating system with more than 1,000 rated stocks.

And yet another member (known on ValueForum as "beetlebomb") tells all willing to listen:
"The cost of ValueForum is a pittance compared to the benefits you will receive. If you are a serious investor who is tired of being fleeced by the Wall Street crowd, I highly recommend you join VF on a trial basis and experience its benefits first hand."

The best way to see what ValueForum.com can do for you is to let you take it for a test drive.

That's why we're offering a special one week "guest pass" that lets you experience the full force of ValueForum.com for just $7.

$7 for access to a new investing tool that can be truly life changing. It was for this member, who goes by "stlbeerman"

" VF has really changed my life and made me more wealthy than I ever expected."

It's lively and engaging, but like Las Vegas, what goes on inside ValueForum stays inside ValueForum — the public post you just read is the exception, not the norm. See for yourself before our remaining memberships are claimed and it's too late!

You can get started now with your seven day guest pass (just $7) if you'd like, or, grab a 3, 6, or 12 month pass here.

Get Started Now image

"Value Forum is literally the best web site on the Internet for investors bar none. It's a real time collection of news, experiences, data sharing, opinions that you can never get from bigger sites like TheStreet.com or Motley Fool. It allows you to gather multiple opinions you can never get from speaking to a stock broker or their analysts."
--bonddadddy

As seen in:



Ranked: Forbes best of the web

"Best investment I ever made."
--PhillyJoe

"I have made a lot of money from ideas exchanged on this forum. I would recommend VF to any serious investor, and I will never be without it."
--tankerat

Try It Now image

"Unbelievably board and deep industry knowledge."
--MtnTopTradr

"Our retirement has been a financial success due entirely to Value Forum."
--newby

"The very best investing board in the country whether your profile is high risk/high reward all the way to conservative/adverse to risk & volatility. This is a monitored board where civility & helpfulness rule."
--ronstaug

Start your test drive image



Email / About | Privacy | Terms of Use | How To / FAQ | Msg Ticker | VF Home | My.vf | BDCs.vf | Energy.vf | REITs.vf | TA.vf
 
Nothing in ValueForum.com is intended to be investment advice, nor does it represent the opinion of, counsel
from, or recommendations by ValueForum.com. ©2003 - 2017, Powered in part by Ticker TechnologiesContact Us

Another Week of Record Crude Production